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Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are on track to rebound so much in 2021 that they will almost wipe out the unprecedented decline caused by the pandemic last year.

The bad news from an international team of researchers comes amid the COP26 summit in Glasgow, UK, where nearly 200 countries are trying to drive down global emissions by almost half by 2030 to meet the world’s target of holding warming to 1.5°C.

Emissions fell by 5.4 per cent in 2020 due to covid-19 restrictions, but are estimated to rise 4.9 per cent this year to 36.4 billion tonnes of CO2, according to the . That puts emissions almost back at 2019 levels.

The steep rebound is on a par with that seen after the 2009 financial crash, in a sign that governments’ promises of a post-pandemic “green recovery” haven't been delivered.

“It’s not fantastic. It’s not entirely surprising. Certainly the rise in emissions in 2021 occurred very quickly,” says at the University of East Anglia, UK, a co-author of the new report.

Glen Peters at CICERO climate research centre in Norway, another co-author, .

The report shows the scale of the challenge facing governments in Glasgow. If emissions continue at this year’s rate, there will be just 11 years left until the world reduces its chances of keeping warming to 1.5°C this century to less than 50/50.

Strong growth in coal and gas use are responsible for much of the emissions increase this year, with oil picking up more slowly. While US and European emissions are down this year on 2019 levels, China is expected to be up 5.5 per cent and India by 4.4 per cent.

The report is based on monthly energy data and projected out to the rest of the year, so comes with some uncertainty. While a 4.9 per cent increase this year is the central estimate, the estimated range is for a 4.1 to 5.7 per cent rise, meaning the world could now be above 2019 levels.

What will happen to emissions next year hinges largely on whether the “sugar hit” of covid-19 financial stimulus boosting coal this year calms down, says Peters, as he expects oil and gas to grow regardless. On the current trajectory, he expects emissions to rise in 2022.

The report says that to hit the 1.5°C target, emissions must fall by 1.4 billion tonnes of CO2 every year, almost on a par with the 1.9-billion-tonne drop caused by the pandemic last year.

Yet the team behind the analysis insists the 1.5°C target is still within reach. “It is still alive,” says Le Quéré, adding that coal phase-outs, electrification of transport, cheaper renewables and reforestation are reasons to think cutting emissions by 1.4 billion tonnes annually is feasible.

“To achieve [that kind of] cut in emissions really requires global concerted action at a scale that has been seen before now - it’s been seen during the pandemic. So we have a precedent for global action of that size,” says Le Quéré. COP26 has given efforts an “incredible push” already, she adds.